Reducing consumption of processed meat by around one-third could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes in the US over 10 years, a study suggests.
Cutting US adults’ processed meat intake by 30 per cent – the equivalent of around 10 slices of bacon a week – would also lead to tens of thousands of fewer cases of cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer, researchers say.
A team from the University of Edinburgh’s Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Systems together with the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, has developed a simulation tool to estimate the health impacts of reducing consumption of processed meat and unprocessed red meat.
While many studies have identified links between high levels of processed meat consumption and chronic disease, few have evaluated the impact on multiple health outcomes. Some previous research also suggests unprocessed red meat may contribute to chronic disease risk, but evidence is still limited.
The researchers utilized data from a national health survey by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to construct a representative sample of the US adult population through a microsimulation.
Their microsimulation is the first to estimate the effects of reducing the consumption of processed meat and unprocessed red meat by 5 to 100 per cent on various health outcomes in the US.
The team assessed how changes in meat consumption impact adults’ likelihood of developing diabetes, cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer, and mortality. They evaluated the effects on the general population and also analyzed them based on age, gender, household income, and ethnicity.
Researchers say cutting processed meat intake by 30% would prevent 350,000 diabetes cases and lead to 92,500 fewer cardiovascular disease cases and 53,300 fewer colorectal cancer cases over a decade.
In this scenario, individuals who identified as white males and those with an annual household income between $25,000 and $55,000 were found to experience the greatest health benefits.
Researchers also analyzed the impacts of reducing unprocessed red meat intake alone and cutting consumption of both processed meat and unprocessed red meat.
Reducing consumption of both by 30 per cent led to 1,073,400 fewer diabetes cases, 382,400 fewer cardiovascular disease cases, and 84,400 fewer colorectal cancer cases.
Reducing unprocessed red meat consumption by 30%, equivalent to eating approximately one less quarter-pound beef burger per week, led to 732,000 fewer diabetes cases, 291,500 fewer cardiovascular disease cases, and 32,200 fewer colorectal cancer cases.
As less is known about the effect of eating unprocessed red meat on chronic disease risk, the team says these estimates should be interpreted with caution and that more research is needed.